Sunday, December 19, 2010

Good News From the U.S. Census

The AP reports:
WASHINGTON - The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections.
The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures.
The biggest gainer will be Texas, a GOP-dominated state expected to gain up to four new House seats, for a total of 36. The chief losers - New York and Ohio, each projected by nongovernment analysts to lose two seats - were carried by Obama in 2008 and are typical of states in the Northeast and Midwest that are declining in political influence.
Democrats' problems don't end there.
November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. It's often a brutally partisan process, and Republicans' control in those states will enable them to create new districts to their liking.
The combination of population shifts and the recent election results could make Obama's re-election campaign more difficult. Each House seat represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, giving more weight to states Obama probably will lose in 2012. The states he carried in 2008 are projected to lose, on balance, six electoral votes to states that his GOP challenger, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, won. That sets a higher bar for Obama before his re-election campaign even starts.
"The way the maps have shifted have made Obama's route to success much more difficult," said Republican Party spokesman Doug Heye. He said the GOP takeover of several state governments on the eve of redistricting efforts was "a dramatic shift."
Republicans now control the governor's offices and both legislative chambers in competitive presidential states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, Maine and Wisconsin. They hold the governors' chairs in other crucial states, including Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Iowa.
When Obama carried those states in 2008, most had Democratic governors happy to lend their political operations to his cause. Now he will run where governors can bend their powers against his administration's policies and his campaign's strategies.
This is good.  Granted, the national Republican party is often a false friend to pro-lifers but it is preferable to the party of abortion.

3 comments:

  1. This is great news for the GOP. Yes, the GOP must listen to the citizens and get back to the principles of the Founding Fathers. Some like Sen. Snowe never will but there are others who have changed their ways and are actually listening and following the citizens' wishes. Unfortunately, with Obama in the White House there is only so much damage control that the GOP can do.

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  2. Iowa is 1 of the blue states slated to lose a House seat.

    Iowa has a system set up where a nonpartisan committee using using computer programs to create compact & contiguous districts. It does tend to ignore incumbants a lot better. The committee makes a proposal & the legislature votes it up or down. If it votes it down the committee comes up with a 2nd proposal. Again the legislature can only vote it up or down. If that one is voted down the next proposal can be amended.

    The 1 big problem is sometimes the 1st proposal has come up with some goofy districts thus insuring its defeat.

    While not perfect, it does work a lot better than a purely politcal process.

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  3. Theresa: It's true that the GOP has limited options but the situation is greatly improved over the Dem controlled congress.

    Al: An interesting system. Gerrymandering is a problem everywhere and the Iowa system seems like the most fair way to redistrict that I have heard of.

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